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Retirement scenario

Can I Retire Yet?

Estimate whether a portfolio can support a yearly spending target using a withdrawal-rate scenario.

Live scenario calculator

Supported spending
Gap / surplus
Status

Educational estimates only. Results depend entirely on the inputs and assumptions you choose.

01 — FormulaThe math underneath

Supported spending = portfolio × withdrawal rate + other annual income

This is a first-pass retirement reality check. It shows whether the spending number is bigger than the portfolio support number. It does not replace professional retirement planning.

02 — Reality checkWhat this does not include

How to use it

Run several scenarios: conservative, middle, and optimistic. The wide gap between those outputs is often more useful than any single answer.

03 — Read the status carefullyA withdrawal-rate check is a starting line

The calculator multiplies the portfolio by the withdrawal rate, adds other income or cash buffer, and compares that support with annual spending. It does not model how long retirement lasts, the order of market returns, taxes, inflation, healthcare, or large one-time expenses.

Lower the rate

A lower withdrawal assumption reduces supported spending but adds a more conservative stress test.

Raise spending

Include irregular costs and healthcare instead of using only a comfortable monthly budget.

Separate income

Model pensions or Social Security carefully rather than counting temporary cash twice.

FAQRetirement-check questions

Does “on track” mean I can retire safely?

No. It only means the simplified annual-spending comparison works under the inputs entered.

Is 4% always the right withdrawal rate?

No. It is a historical rule of thumb. Time horizon, asset mix, fees, taxes, flexibility, and market conditions all matter.

Why include a buffer or other income?

It lets you compare portfolio-supported spending with outside resources, but each source should be entered only if it is reliable and available during the modeled period.

04 — Beyond the ratioWhat a simple retirement check cannot see

A withdrawal-rate comparison is only one layer. It does not know when market losses arrive, whether spending changes, how long retirement lasts, what taxes apply, or how Social Security, pensions, insurance, debt, housing, and healthcare fit together.

Sequence risk

Losses early in retirement can be more damaging when withdrawals continue.

Spending flexibility

A plan that can reduce withdrawals may behave differently from a fixed-dollar plan.

Non-portfolio income

Pensions and other income can reduce the amount the portfolio must provide.

Use the status as a question generator—not a retirement decision. A qualified fiduciary, tax professional, or benefits specialist may be needed for a full plan.

Keep going

This calculator is for education only. It is not financial, investment, tax, legal, or retirement advice.